March 24th, 2017

California growers expect to ship about 200 million pounds of avocados between now and August, about half as much as they moved in 2016, according to the Irvine-based California Avocado Commission. Prices typically are “firmer” during a short crop year than a long crop year because of supply and demand. The market is not expected to see “wild swings” in prices, like those that characterized the market last year.

Meanwhile, the industry welcomed the rain that pelted the state after several years of drought. The precipitation might affect when growers choose to harvest since the land needs to absorb all the rain that has fallen, but market conditions and availability of harvest crews will be bigger factors this season.

Crop size

Overall crop size for the state will be down significantly this season, making logistics, projections and pricing a little more difficult. The quality of California fruit is excellent, but there’s not a lot of it this year.

Mexican crop

Mexico’s crop is also expected to be smaller than last year’s, but growers there should be able to fill any void caused by the shortfall of California fruit. The initial estimate for Mexico was 2.1 billion pounds, but might be as low as 1.6 billion pounds. Instead of 40 million pounds per week, there could be around 30 million.

Therefore we might see a price increase. Prices were fairly stable through the summer months, but in fall circumstances caused (prices) to go up again. This year, prices won’t be lower, but they will be more consistent throughout.